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Lessons
from Clever Hans
Mr.
von Osten and Clever Hans
The Lessons Learned
Facts
- objective statements based on direct observation that everyone can
agree are true. It is a fact that Hans was responding in a way that
gave the appearance of human-like intelligence.
Theories
- a mental model designed to explain facts. Theories also make predictions
about new facts that might be discovered.
Hypotheses
- Any predictions about new facts that might be discovered are hypotheses.
A hypothesis is an educated guess.
Skepticism - Scientists should always be skeptical about any claim and
should be willing to make attempts to disprove any theory, including
their own. The best explanations for phenomena are often the most parsimonious,
or the most simple. Accepting that Hans could do what von Osten claimed
would require re-thinking everything we know about animal intelligence
and behavior. A skeptic would first consider more parsimonious explanations
before accepting von Osten's hypothesis.
(A good example of the need for skepticism in science is the whole issue
of "repressed memories." This issue is controversial. Read about a leading
memory scientist's skeptical views of this phenomenon here.)
Observations
under controlled conditions - by conducting experiments in controlled
conditions scientists can be more confident about their conclusions.
Creating an experiment is one way to ensure that your observations are
made under controlled conditions. In the case of Clever Hans, the conditions
were not controlled, so although it appeared that Hans was making intelligent
answers, in fact he was receiving information about how to respond correctly
from Mr. von Osten and the audience.
Observer-expectancy
effects - when observations are not made in controlled conditions, the
observers can sometimes affect the phenomena under observation. People
observing Hans expected him to get the answers correct and (knowingly
or unknowingly) communicated to him how to answer questions correctly.
Experiments attempt to control for observer-expectancy effects.
LINK:
The Skeptical Inquirer, the magazine for science and reason.
Types of Research Strategies
Experiments
Experiments are controlled investigations that study cause-and-effect
relationships through the manipulation of variables. They allow for random
assignment.
An experimenter manipulates V1 (e.g., amount of grain alcohol consumed
by a person) and then measures
V2 (e.g., amount of aggression displayed).
V1 is your independent variable
The experimenter (E) has total control over the independent variable (IV).
That is, the E decides "how much" of the IV the subject (S) gets or the
condition to which the S is assigned.
For
example, one way to manipulate the IV would be:
1 oz. consumed 2
oz. consumed 4
oz. consumed 8
oz. consumed 12
oz. consumed 48
oz. consumed
V2 is your dependent variable
The dependent variable is what E measures in the experiment. You're interested
in how scores on the dependent variable vary as a function of exposure
to different levels of the IV.
So, the amount of aggression is our dependent variable.
Of course, we need to make sure we have a valid measure of amount of aggression.
Let's assume we do. Here are our results.
Correlational
Studies
Correlation = Relation between two or more measured variables. We
can't always manipulate variables or hold them under control. Sometimes,
we can only measure them.
Ex.: we can't force some people to go to church and others not to -- that
would be unethical.
Ex.: we can't force some people to read books and others not to -- that
would be unethical.
So, all we can do is measure church-going and measure book-reading to
see whether the two measures are related. How
do we measure relationships in the correlational method? We
compute correlation coefficients using statistical techniques.
Correlation coefficients can range from -1.00 through 0 to +1.00
negative correlation (= -.01 to -1.00)
uncorrelated data - zero correlation (= 0)
positive correlation (= +.01 to +1.00)
How do we interpret relationships found using the correlational method?
The higher the correlation coefficient-- be it positive or negative --
the stronger the relationship between two variables. The
closer the correlation coefficient is to ZERO -- be it positive or negative--
the less there is a relationship between the two variables
The Cardinal Rule of Correlation (repeat after me): Correlation does
not imply Causation
The Cardinal Rule of Correlation Put Differently:
We can only describe a relationship, without making claims that:
Church-going CAUSES book-reading
Book-reading CAUSES church-going
Practicing
Correlation
Read about the following relationships and determine if the relationship
is positive or negative? Then give
two explanations for each relationship.
A study of married couples showed that the longer they had been married,
the more similar their opinions were on social and political issues.
In a study of American cities, a relationship was found between the number
of violent crimes and the number of store selling violence-depicting pornography.
A college professor finds that the more class absences a student has,
the lower their grade in the course tends to be.
All children in an orphanage received an IQ test. Results showed that
the longer the children had lived in the orphanage, the lower their IQ
scores.
People who are left-handed tend to die, on average, seven years earlier
than people who are right-handed.
The incidence of
violence (and lunacy) is greater when there is a full moon.
Students who attend
class get higher grades in the course than those who attend less regularly.
As scores on a
measure of depression increase, so do scores on a measure of how shame-prone
they are.
The more someone
watches T.V. shows with positive, prosocial content (e.g., Mr. Rogers'
Neighborhood), the more helpful and empathetic they tend to be in real-life.
The more someone
plays violent video games (e.g., Doom), the more aggressive they are in
real-life.
The more churches
there are in a community, the more bars there are.
The greater the
number of medical doctors available, the greater the death rate.
The more churches there are in a community, the less the violence rate.
Study Finds Utah Leads Nation in Antidepressant Use. Click here
for more.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Correlations
Advantages
May be more convenient to implement in some situations
May be permissible where ethical considerations prohibit random assignment
of subjects;
May be conducted in a more naturalistic setting;
May give you access to a larger subject pool, since data are easier to
collect than in an experiment
Biggest disadvantage:
Can't infer _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _?
Can't infer _c a u s a l i t y_!
Descriptive
Studies
Descriptive studies simply describe individuals
without manipulating variables or systematically investigating their relationships.
Examples:
Goodall's
research with chimpanzees in the wild.
Observing people
behave at sporting events
Counting how often
people use wastebaskets in parks
Recording
pupils' interactions on playground
Research Settings
Laboratory studies - this is when a researcher
sets up a controlled environment in which to conduct an experiment. Laboratory
studies can be very effective at making sure that observations are made
under controlled conditions.
Example: Milgram's studies of obedience. Click here.
Field studies - sometimes it is impossible or impractical to conduct research
in a laboratory. For example, what if a researcher was interested in people's
behaviors while in church? She could created a laboratory environment
that
replicates the actual church environment, but it is unlikely that people
would behave in this environment exactly the same way as they would in
a real church. Therefore the researcher might decide to conduct the research
in the "field", which might mean going into actual churches
(with permission and consent) and observing people's behavior there. This
technique is called "naturalistic observation" (see below).
Other examples:
You could
introduce "models" into the park. Some models throw trash away in
wastebasket. Others throw trash on ground. You count how often the
"subjects" use the wastebasket as a function of the model to whom
they were exposed.
Sherif & the
famous Robber's Cave study
Lewin's leadership
studies.
Data Collection Methods
Self-report - many phenomena studied in psychology
can only be investigated by asking people how they think or feel. This
can be done through methods such as questionnaires, interviews and/or
naturalistic observation.
Questionnaires
- this is where people produce self-descriptions by checking off items
on a list or writing answers to essay questions.
Interviews
- in the interview, people describe their thoughts, feeling and behaviors
orally to an investigator. Interviews can either be structured, where
only specific questions are asked, or unstructured, where the investigator
asks questions as they occur to him or her.
Naturalistic
observation - sometimes the only way to find out about people's behavior
is to watch them do it in the actual environment. The example above, about
investigating behavior in church by actually going there and observing
people is an example of naturalistic observation.
Statistical
Methods in Psychology
Descriptive
Statistics
Descriptive statistics
are simply ways of describe a set of numbers, also called a data set.
Three of the most commonly used descriptive statistics are the mean, median,
and mode.
Mean
- the mean is simply the arithmetic average of a set of numbers.
Median
- The median is the "middle" number in a set of scores. Take
a set of numbers, arrange them from lowest to highest, and the middle
number is the median (a good way to remember this is to think of the median
that is the middle of a highway.) If there is an odd number of data, simply
pick the middle number. If there is an even number of data, the midpoint
between the two middle numbers is the median.
Mode
- the mode is simply the number that occurs the most frequently in a data
set.
It is also useful
to describe the degree to which the numbers in a data set differ from
one another or from the mean. This is called variability and the most
common measure of variability is the standard deviation.
Standard
deviation - this is simply the average difference between each individual
score and the mean. Said another way, the standard deviation is how much,
on average, the scores in a data set differ from the mean.
Inferential
Statistics
Whereas descriptive statistics simply describe
a data set, inferential statistics attempt to make inferences about a
larger population based on a data set. For example, if you're interested
in studying USU student behavior, you would have a hard time collecting
data from each and every student. Instead, you collect data from a sample
of students, representative of the entire USU student body, and then make
inferences about the student body based on the data collected from your
sample.
Any time you collect data, it will contain variability due to chance.
For example, by chance alone, you might collect data from more USU freshman
than from USU sophomores. If you repeated your data collection several
times, you would get somewhat different results each time due to this
chance variability.
If
this chance variability always exists in data collection, how can a researcher
be confident that the inferences he or she makes about the larger population
(the entire USU student body) is accurate? We use inferential statistics!
Instead of making absolute conclusions about the population, researchers
make statements about the population using the laws of probability and
statistical significance.
Statistical Significance
In research, the inference being assessed is called the research hypothesis.
In an experiment, this hypothesis usually states that the independent
variable has some consistent effect on the dependent variable. In correlational
research, this hypothesis is a statement about the nature of the correlation
between two variables.
Inferential statistics are procedures for calculating the probability
that the data could have come out like they did IF THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
IS WRONG. Said another way, inferential statistics tell us how likely
it is that we would find the results we found in our research due to chance
alone. Researchers want to be very careful (remember skepticism?) so this
probability has to be very small before they confident they have supported
their research hypothesis.
The components of
a test of statistical significance are (a) size of the observed effect,
(b) number of individual observations and (c) variability.
Statistical significance
does not necessarily imply practical significance.
For example: A researcher finds statistically significant results that
an educational program increases students' math performance by a half
a percentage point. That is, after participating in the program, a student's
math scores are raised by .05%. The cost of this program is $5000 per
student. Although the researcher may have demonstrated that the .05% rise
in math scores is unlikely to be due to chance, this finding is of little
practical significance considering the expense of the program and the
minor raise in performance.
median
= 5 mode = 5
Minimizing
Bias in Psychological Research
Error
and Bias
Error refers to
random variability in results.
Bias refers to
nonrandom effects caused by some factors unrelated to the research hypothesis.
Avoiding
a biased sample
When assigning participants
to groups in an experiment, it is critical to ensure that the groups do
not differ systematically before the experiment. If they do, then your
results can be biased.
Let's look at an example:
A researcher wants to determine how effective an educational program is
at raising elementary school childrens' math scores. Because it would
be difficult to pull children out of their classes, the experimenter decides
to use Mrs. Jones' class as the experimental group, which receives the
educational program. Mr. Smith's class is used as the control group, which
does not receive the educational program. Why are the results of this
experiment likely to be biased?
Because the experimental and control groups differ in a systematic way
OTHER than the educational program. Maybe Mrs. Jones is a better math
teacher than Mr. Smith, making all the children in her class score higher
on math tests. The only systematic difference between the groups in an
experiment should be the independent variable, which in this case is the
educational program.
Avoiding
measurement bias
To avoid measurement
bias, researchers try to make sure their measurements are reliable and
valid.
A reliable measure is a consistent measure.
A valid measure
is one that actually measures what you intend it to measure. There are
several different categories of validity, of which we will discuss two.
Some psychological
measures lack face validity. Face validity refers to whether or
not a measurements looks like it measures what it is supposed to measure.
You may encounter a question on a test of schizophrenia that apparently
has absolutely nothing to do with schizophrenia. In fact, this question
may be quite good at contributing to a determination of whether or not
you have this mental illness.
Criterion validity
refers to how strongly the scores of a measurement correlate with another
"valid" index of what we are measuring. For example, we have
one measure of aggression (e.g., how many unprovoked fights children are
observed to have on the school playground) & this measure is already
known to be valid. We want to know whether another, new measure validly
assesses aggression (e.g., how often children are nominated by peers to
be aggressive). For the nomination measure to possess criterion validity,
it must correlate strongly with observations of playground fights.
Observer-expectancy effects
Remember Mr. von Osten and his not-so-Clever
Hans? Sometimes a researcher who desires a particular result can unintentionally
communicate the desired result to research participants, biasing the results.
Oscar Pfungst suggested that Hans was observing subtle cues from von Osten
and the observing crowd to figure out when to stop counting. This is an
observer-expectancy effect.
So how can we avoid
such biases if they are unintentional? We can do this by keeping the observer
blind. This means that the observer does not know about the research
hypothesis and therefore has no expectations to communicate.
Subject
expectancy effects
Suppose you went to the doctor with a stress-induced
headache. Concerned about giving you unnecessary drugs, the doctor instead
gives you a sugar pill but tells you that the pill is a strong pain reliever.
An hour later, your headache is gone. Since you had the expectation that
your headache would be gone it went away, even without the benefit of
medicine. This is called a subject-expectancy effect and the sugar pill
is called a placebo.
In experiments, subject expectancy effects can be controlled by using
double-blind procedures. This simply means that both the person administering
the procedure (e.g., the experimenter) and the participant/subject in
the procedure (e.g., the patient) are kept unaware of (blind to) the condition
to which the participant is being assigned. Example: The alcohol-aggression
study would be "double blind" if neither the experimenter nor the participant
knew exactly how much alcohol the participants had been given. In a drug
treatment effectiveness study, neither the experimenter/physician nor
the subject/patient would know whether the subject had received the placebo
or the real drug.
educes the chance of finding statistically significant
results, bias leads to false conclusions.
( Cartoons by
Mark Parisi. Used by special permission. For many more, visit his site.)
Ethical
Issues In Psychological Research
Research
with humans
Psychological
science depends largely upon willing human participants Without them,
how would we ever learn anything? Therefore, respecting the rights, safety
and privacy of research participants is of the utmost importance. Three
are three primary issues to consider when conducting research with humans:
Rights
to privacy - the privacy rights of participants are maintained by obtaining
informed consent, allowing participants to quit at any time without penalty
and keeping records and data confidential and secure
The use
of deception - is it ethical to deceive people in psychological research?
How can we avoid expectancy effects if participants are completely informed
about the research and its hypotheses? Some researchers view all deception
as unethical, yet others believe that it must be done in some cases, but
done carefully and respectfully.
Possible
discomfort
or harm - participants in research must always be informed of any possible
physical or psychological harm that might result from their participation
in the research.
Research with animals
Most people agree
that procedures that cannot ethically be done to humans can be done with
animals. Others believe that animals should have the exact same rights
as humans and, since they are unable to give consent, should never be
used in psychological research. It is a fact that humans have benefited
greatly from research conducted with animals. Fortunately there is some
middle ground - the American Psychological Association has established
a set of principles guiding the use of animals in research to protect
them as much as is possible.
LINK:
The American Psychological Association's code of ethics.