Study Finds Sudden Weather Whiplash Events on the Rise

In a warming world, it's not just heatwaves or cold spells we need to worry about, it's the sudden swings between the two. A new study finds that "rapid temperature flips," where temperatures shift abruptly from extreme heat to extreme cold or vice versa, are happening more often, more intensely and more quickly than they previously did.

These dramatic shifts, sometimes occurring within just a day or two, leave little time for people, ecosystems, and infrastructure to adjust, which raises the risk of widespread damage.

Notable examples include the “false spring” in North America in 2012, when an early heatwave caused trees to bloom prematurely. The blossoms that could have been pollinated and become fruit were frozen just days later during a harsh cold snap.

Similarly, the sudden snowstorm that followed a scorching heatwave in the Rocky Mountains in 2020 caught communities completely off guard and unprepared for the harsh change.

The research, recently published in Nature Communications, analyzed temperature data from 1961 through projections to 2100. It found that over 60% of the globe has already experienced an uptick in these events, and the trend is accelerating. Under a high-carbon-emissions future scenario, the researchers’ projections foresee temperature flips becoming 7-8% more frequent and intense by the end of the century, and the time between extremes shrinks.

"Some surprising findings are the increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of temperature swings, and a decreasing trend in the transition duration both historically and our projections for the future," said Assistant Professor Wei Zhang, a climate scientist in Utah State University's Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, who collaborated on the research. "We have known that extreme temperatures are becoming more severe, but little has been known about these rapid flips."

These swift temperature changes can have dramatic impacts on daily life, affecting power grids, transportation and agriculture. A warm spell in spring followed by a sudden cold snap, for instance, can damage crops and strain energy resources.

“Rapid temperature flips raise challenges to natural ecosystems and built environments and societies, including energy systems, power grids and growers," Zhang said. "For example, if an extreme warm temperature in the spring is followed by an extremely cold temperature, that would damage crops.”

The study also highlights that low-income countries are disproportionately affected, due to higher than global average population densities and limited capacity to adapt to more frequent changes with infrastructure and services that may already be insufficient. Researchers project low-income countries face up to six times greater risk than the global average.

Currently, there are no dedicated tools to predict these rapid temperature changes. However, Zhang is leading a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded project aimed at developing predictive methods for such events.

"We're adapting a model initially designed for predicting precipitation to predict temperature swings," Zhang said. "This could be a significant step forward in preparing for and mitigating the impacts of these rapid changes."

Because of the severe and widespread impacts of rapid temperature flips, the study has garnered attention beyond the climate science community and he was recently quoted in The New York Times discussing the study's implications.

As climate change continues to push weather patterns into new extremes, understanding the sudden and more frequent flips between hot and cold is crucial in helping individuals, regions, and many industries to prepare or respond to these significant climate events.