4A: Decisions that lie ahead for the Colorado River

Unregulated inflow to Lake Powell reservoir from this year’s large snowpack was 13.6 million acre feet (maf), an amount significantly greater than the 9.6 maf average managers have seen during the past three decades. This year’s inflow was second only to the inflow of 2011 that was the largest of the 21st century. The total annual water supply for the Colorado River Basin—the sum of unregulated inflows to Lake Powell, plus all upstream human uses and losses and all other water sources in the basin—is predicted to exceed the rate of human use of the river’s water by almost 5 maf. A year of such a great snowfall and runoff might suggest to some that the water-supply crisis of the Colorado River is over. But the two largest reservoirs in the United States, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are still more than 30 maf below full capacity. If 2023 were repeated multiple times, and basin-wide consumption remains as high as it is today, it would take six additional years to refill the two reservoirs—an unlikely scenario. The wet winter of 2023 came at a very fortunate time for managers, but it is only a temporary reprieve.

The clock of water shortage is still ticking. The climate of the Intermountain West continues toward aridification, and warm temperatures combined with dry soils will continue to reduce the flow of the Colorado River.

Our best option for the health of the Colorado River, and for the stability of growing communities, is to continue to find ways to make significant reductions in consumptive use. Everyone needs to play a part to save water in the region. Fundamental changes in the Law of the River are needed to negotiate strategies to reduce consumptive use everywhere in the basin. Making difficult choices to cut consumptive use and face the tradeoffs that come with growing populations isn’t straightforward or easy, but it remains the reality for managers and communities. This year’s wet winter has offered leaders time to negotiate a more thoughtful, adaptive solution. The challenge now is not to squander that opportunity