4A: Can we rely on drought-busting “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

In recent years, we have witnessed drought-busting spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the so-called “Miracle May” of 2015. Some may consider spring 2023 to be another miracle. These events provide much-needed relief in times of severe drought, but their frequency and intensity have not been well researched or characterized. Our ongoing research aims to define and quantify these extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions, which is crucial for understanding their future occurrence and potential impact on water management strategies.

As the world continues to warm, our research suggests that these miraculous events may become less frequent and less intense. This finding holds significant implications for water managers, as they must assume less-certain recurrence of such “miracles” and develop strategies to ensure an adequate water supply for agriculture, municipal uses, and ecological needs. As we delve deeper into the study of these events, it is essential to consider their spatial and temporal variability and the consequences they pose to different regions within the basin. For instance, an extreme dry-to-wet transition might benefit some areas while causing floods and fires in others, as was the case with the 2015 storm events that led to flooding in Texas.

We will continue to collaborate with stakeholders and water managers to identify the best metrics for characterizing these events and refine our understanding of their climatological characteristics. By doing so, we can better prepare for the challenges ahead and develop informed, adaptive strategies for managing water resources in the Colorado River Basin. With a proactive approach, including utilizing advanced climate prediction methods, we can mitigate some effects of climate change and ensure the basin’s water supply remains sustainable for future generations.