TAKEAWAY
An expanding and increasingly hotter warm season, coupled with a more variable monsoon seasonality, is stressing Utah’s water supply.
Utah's summer season temperatures are expanding earlier into spring, and later into fall. At the same time, the North American monsoon-oftentimes a significant summer water resource-is becoming more vairable and erratic, with recent years experiencing both failed "non-soons" and record rainfall events. In addition, the monsoon is exhibiting increasing variability, which leads to reduced predictability. The alterations in timing of summer temperatures coupled with summer monsoon's increasing variability add greater risk to water resource management desicions. For example, limited water availability places added stress on the state's water supply.
Utah’s summer tourism, agricultural economies, and energy use are all inextricably tied to the region’s climate. For example, an expansion of the summer season temperatures theoretically lengthens the growing season, but at the expense of irrigation demand. Higher temperatures worsen air quality problems. Earlier and longer springs and summers imply potential increases in utility bills. The summer monsoon is often responsible for “flash floods” through the development of convective systems, which also ignite wildfires. A longer drying season also exacerbates wildfire prospects. A hotter warm season has the potential to turn an even above-normal winter snowpack and spring runoff into less viable water supplies.
References
- Meyer, J, Wang, S-YS, Gillies, RR, Yoon, J-H. (2021). Evaluating NA-CORDEX historical performance and future change of western U.S. precipitation patterns and modes of variability. International Journal of Climatology, 41, 4509–4532. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7083
- Gu, H., Wang, S., Lin, Y., Meyer, J., Gillies, R.R, (2021). Historical trend of probable maximum precipitation in Utah and associated weather types. International Journal of Climatology, 9(42), 4773-4787. https://doi: DOI:10.1002/joc.7503
