WILDFIRE IN NEPAL | BINOD POKHAREL
TAKEAWAY
A study of a record-setting fire year in Nepal offers clues for predicting seasonal risk, which may help Utah detect and manage future blazes.
The lessons learned in Nepal suggest advanced climate prediction models can help Utahns anticipate and mitigate the risks to forests, farmland, and recreation areas.
In the spring of 2021, Nepal was engulfed in a wildfire season of unprecedented ferocity, with flames consuming one of the world’s most awe-inspiring landscapes at a rate 10 times the annual average.
The blazes may offer a searing glimpse into the future for fire-prone regions around the globe—including in Utah, where the delicate dance between wet and dry years can easily be set off-balance.
The research highlights the risks of amplified climate variability. Abnormally wet years, while a temporary reprieve from drought, can also strengthen the growth of vegetation which, in hotter and drier times, become the kindling for infernos (Figure 4.E.1).
Utah is no stranger to this cycle. From 2010 to 2017, the state averaged about 18,000 wildfire acres per year as vegetation aggregated, waiting for lightning to strike or a campfire to be poorly tended. That happened in 2018, when more than 181,000 acres burned—and the high-fire years continued for several summers thereafter before returning to normal levels once again.
The lessons learned in Nepal suggest advanced climate prediction models can help Utahns anticipate and mitigate the risks to forests, farmland, and recreation areas—and also help prepare the state for the far- reaching impacts of smoke on public health. By closely monitoring ocean temperatures, watching the skies for patterns of precipitation, keeping tabs on mountain snowpacks, and scrutinizing the ebbs and flow of groundwater, Utah can build interannual resilience against the recurring threat of wildfires, charting a course towards detectable and manageable risks.
Figure 4.E.1 The relationship between 2002–2020 monthly precipitation deficits and subsequent active fire points in Nepal
