2E: Utah’s Snowpack in Decline: Bracing for a Future with Less Snow

In many ways, snow defines Utah. Winter snowpack offers culturally and economically important opportunities for recreation and tourism, and acts as a giant natural reservoir for the state, feeding streams and rivers, irrigating fields and filling reservoirs as it melts. Utah’s snowpack, however, is in decline. Since 1979, when the first SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) sites were installed in the state, peak snowpack has decreased by 16%. Although the exceptional winter of 2022-23 offered a reprieve, the trend is clear: an increasing portion of the state’s precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow. These conditions will likely continue into the future.

It is critical that Utahns prepare for a future with less snow, longer and drier summers, and higher temperatures in all seasons. Diminishing snowpack will shorten the season for skiing and other forms of winter tourism and recreation, which could lead to lost revenue. More importantly, less snow in the longer term means less water available for multiple uses, including drinking water and agriculture. Rain is harder to capture than snow, and it’s impossible with our current infrastructure to store anywhere near the volume of water that currently is naturally stored in early spring snowpack. So even if Utah continues to receive the same amount of precipitation under a warming climate, or even more precipitation as some models suggest (Figure 2.E.1), we’ll still grapple with water shortages and droughts, threatening communities’ health and safety.

Less water will also be harmful and disruptive to ecosystems, fish, and wildlife, and could threaten biodiversity. For example, the state fish—the Bonneville cutthroat trout—relies on cold, reliable streamflow to survive. Less snow will impact this species. There is also potential for the tree line to shift, as subalpine fir and other high-altitude trees adapt to growing at higher elevations. A higher tree line would decrease the extent of alpine tundra ecosystems, which could threaten some tree and wildlife species.